La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Mar 14 · 13:00 · Girona vs Athletic Club
Likeliest: Athletic Club win · 43%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Girona35%35%0
OursMarket
Draw22%29%−7
OursMarket
Athletic Club43%36%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 47% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 53% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 64% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 71% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 49% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Girona
DrawWinDrawLossDraw
- Mar 7 · at Levante (A)1-1
- Mar 1 · v Celta de Vigo (H)1-2
- Feb 23 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)2-2
- Feb 16 · v FC Barcelona (H)2-1
- Feb 7 · at Sevilla (A)1-1
Athletic Club
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Mar 11 · v Ypiranga Erechim (H)2-0
- Mar 7 · v FC Barcelona (H)0-1
- Mar 4 · at Real Sociedad (A)0-1
- Feb 28 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)1-1
- Feb 20 · v Elche (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Girona | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.