La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Dec 21 · 13:00 · Girona vs Atlético Madrid
Likeliest: Atlético Madrid win · 49%
A 27% home win. The market says 20%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Girona27%20%+8
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
Atlético Madrid49%56%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 54% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 44% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 80% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 26% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Girona
DrawDrawLossLossWin
- Dec 12 · at Real Sociedad (A)2-1
- Dec 7 · at Elche (A)0-3
- Dec 3 · at Ourense CF (A)1-2
- Nov 30 · v Real Madrid (H)1-1
- Nov 23 · at Real Betis (A)1-1
Atlético Madrid
LossLossWinWinWin
- Dec 17 · at Atlético Baleares (A)3-2
- Dec 13 · v Valencia (H)2-1
- Dec 9 · at PSV (A)3-2
- Dec 6 · at Athletic Club (A)0-1
- Dec 2 · at FC Barcelona (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Girona | Atlético Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.