La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Mar 1 · 20:00 · Girona vs Celta de Vigo
Likeliest: Celta de Vigo win · 45%
A 45% away win. The market says 32%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Girona34%40%−6
OursMarket
Draw21%29%−7
OursMarket
Celta de Vigo45%32%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 48% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 54% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 68% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 60% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 71% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 56% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Girona
DrawLossDrawWinDraw
- Feb 23 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)2-2
- Feb 16 · v FC Barcelona (H)2-1
- Feb 7 · at Sevilla (A)1-1
- Jan 31 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-1
- Jan 26 · v Getafe (H)1-1
Celta de Vigo
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Feb 26 · v PAOK (H)1-0
- Feb 22 · v Mallorca (H)2-0
- Feb 19 · at PAOK (A)2-1
- Feb 14 · at Espanyol (A)2-2
- Feb 6 · v Osasuna (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Girona | Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.