La Liga (Spain) · Sat, May 23 · 19:00 · Girona vs Elche
Likeliest: Girona win · 42%
A 33% away win. The market says 23%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Girona42%52%−10
OursMarket
Draw25%25%+1
OursMarket
Elche33%23%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 56% | −21 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 58% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 77% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 48% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 70% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Girona
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- May 17 · at Atlético Madrid (A)0-1
- May 14 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-1
- May 11 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)1-1
- May 1 · v Mallorca (H)0-1
- Apr 25 · at Valencia (A)1-2
Elche
WinLossDrawLossWin
- May 17 · v Getafe (H)1-0
- May 12 · at Real Betis (A)1-2
- May 9 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)1-1
- May 3 · at Celta de Vigo (A)1-3
- Apr 26 · at Real Oviedo (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Girona | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 1-0-9 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.