La Liga (Spain) · Mon, Feb 16 · 20:00 · Girona vs FC Barcelona
Likeliest: FC Barcelona win · 65%
We make it 39% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 28%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Girona17%13%+4
OursMarket
Draw18%17%+2
OursMarket
FC Barcelona65%70%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 72% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 62% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 35% | 30% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 83% | 87% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 83% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 21% | 16% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Girona
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Feb 7 · at Sevilla (A)1-1
- Jan 31 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-1
- Jan 26 · v Getafe (H)1-1
- Jan 16 · at Espanyol (A)2-0
- Jan 10 · v Osasuna (H)1-0
FC Barcelona
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Feb 12 · at Atlético Madrid (A)0-4
- Feb 7 · v Mallorca (H)3-0
- Feb 3 · at Albacete (A)2-1
- Jan 31 · at Elche (A)3-1
- Jan 28 · v FC København (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Girona | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 8-0-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.