La Liga (Spain) · Mon, Jan 26 · 20:00 · Girona vs Getafe
Likeliest: Girona win · 47%
We make it 49% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 33%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Girona47%44%+3
OursMarket
Draw21%32%−10
OursMarket
Getafe32%24%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 33% | +16 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 40% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 76% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 56% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 68% | +10 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 65% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Girona
WinLossWinWinWin
- Jan 16 · at Espanyol (A)2-0
- Jan 10 · v Osasuna (H)1-0
- Jan 4 · at Mallorca (A)2-1
- Dec 21 · v Atlético Madrid (H)0-3
- Dec 12 · at Real Sociedad (A)2-1
Getafe
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Jan 18 · v Valencia (H)0-1
- Jan 9 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-2
- Jan 2 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)1-1
- Dec 21 · at Real Betis (A)0-4
- Dec 18 · at Burgos (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Girona | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 1-1-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.