La Liga (Spain) · Fri, May 1 · 19:00 · Girona vs Mallorca
Likeliest: Girona win · 45%
A 29% away win. The market says 24%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Girona45%49%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−1
OursMarket
Mallorca29%24%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 54% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 76% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 51% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 67% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Girona
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Apr 25 · at Valencia (A)1-2
- Apr 21 · v Real Betis (H)2-3
- Apr 10 · at Real Madrid (A)1-1
- Apr 6 · v Villarreal (H)1-0
- Mar 21 · at Osasuna (A)0-1
Mallorca
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Apr 25 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)1-2
- Apr 21 · v Valencia (H)1-1
- Apr 12 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)3-0
- Apr 4 · v Real Madrid (H)2-1
- Mar 21 · at Elche (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Girona | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 0-3-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.