La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Jan 10 · 17:30 · Girona vs Osasuna
Likeliest: Osasuna win · 60%
We make it 63% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Girona21%40%−19
OursMarket
Draw20%30%−10
OursMarket
Osasuna60%30%+29
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 44% | +18 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 51% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 41% | 70% | −29 |
| Double chance X2 | 79% | 60% | +19 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 70% | +10 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 26% | 57% | −31 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Girona
LossLossWinLossWin
- Jan 4 · at Mallorca (A)2-1
- Dec 21 · v Atlético Madrid (H)0-3
- Dec 12 · at Real Sociedad (A)2-1
- Dec 7 · at Elche (A)0-3
- Dec 3 · at Ourense CF (A)1-2
Osasuna
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Jan 3 · v Athletic Club (H)1-1
- Dec 20 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)3-0
- Dec 17 · at Huesca (A)4-2
- Dec 13 · at FC Barcelona (A)0-2
- Dec 8 · v Levante (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Girona | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.