La Liga (Spain) · Tue, Apr 21 · 19:30 · Girona vs Real Betis
Likeliest: Girona win · 46%
A 46% home win. The market says 39%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Girona46%39%+7
OursMarket
Draw22%28%−6
OursMarket
Real Betis32%33%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 67% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 61% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 72% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 54% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Girona
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- Apr 10 · at Real Madrid (A)1-1
- Apr 6 · v Villarreal (H)1-0
- Mar 21 · at Osasuna (A)0-1
- Mar 14 · v Athletic Club (H)3-0
- Mar 7 · at Levante (A)1-1
Real Betis
LossDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Apr 16 · v Sporting Braga (H)2-4
- Apr 12 · at Osasuna (A)1-1
- Apr 8 · at Sporting Braga (A)1-1
- Apr 4 · v Espanyol (H)0-0
- Mar 22 · at Athletic Club (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Girona | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.