La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Nov 30 · 20:00 · Girona vs Real Madrid
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 51%
We make it 45% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 33%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Girona24%15%+9
OursMarket
Draw24%19%+5
OursMarket
Real Madrid51%65%−14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 67% | −12 |
| Double chance 1X | 49% | 35% | +14 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 85% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 81% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 32% | 19% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Girona
LossDrawLossWinDraw
- Nov 23 · at Real Betis (A)1-1
- Nov 8 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)1-0
- Oct 31 · at Getafe (A)1-2
- Oct 25 · v Real Oviedo (H)3-3
- Oct 18 · at FC Barcelona (A)1-2
Real Madrid
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- Nov 26 · at Olympiacos F.C. (A)4-3
- Nov 23 · at Elche (A)2-2
- Nov 9 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)0-0
- Nov 4 · at Liverpool (A)0-1
- Nov 1 · v Valencia (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Girona | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.