La Liga (Spain) · Thu, May 14 · 18:00 · Girona vs Real Sociedad
Likeliest: Girona win · 45%
We make it 56% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Girona45%48%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
Real Sociedad29%27%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 55% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 52% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 64% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Girona
DrawLossLossLossDraw
- May 11 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)1-1
- May 1 · v Mallorca (H)0-1
- Apr 25 · at Valencia (A)1-2
- Apr 21 · v Real Betis (H)2-3
- Apr 10 · at Real Madrid (A)1-1
Real Sociedad
DrawLossDrawLossDraw
- May 9 · v Real Betis (H)2-2
- May 4 · at Sevilla (A)0-1
- Apr 26 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)3-3
- Apr 22 · v Getafe (H)0-1
- Apr 18 · at Atlético Madrid (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Girona | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.