La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Mar 15 · 20:00 · Girona vs Valencia
Likeliest: Girona win · 42%
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Girona42%——
OursMarket
Draw29%——
OursMarket
Valencia28%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Girona
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- Mar 10 · at Espanyol (A)1-1
- Mar 1 · v Celta de Vigo (H)2-2
- Feb 23 · at Real Madrid (A)0-2
- Feb 14 · v Getafe (H)1-2
- Feb 8 · at Athletic Club (A)0-3
Valencia
WinDrawLossDrawWin
- Mar 8 · v Real Valladolid (H)2-1
- Mar 2 · at Osasuna (A)3-3
- Feb 22 · v Atlético Madrid (H)0-3
- Feb 15 · at Villarreal (A)1-1
- Feb 9 · v Leganés (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Girona | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-3 | 2-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.