La Liga (Spain) · Mon, Apr 6 · 19:00 · Girona vs Villarreal
Likeliest: Girona win · 39%
A 39% home win. The market says 31%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Girona39%31%+8
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−2
OursMarket
Villarreal36%42%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 56% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 58% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 69% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 42% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Girona
DrawLossDrawWinLoss
- Mar 21 · at Osasuna (A)0-1
- Mar 14 · v Athletic Club (H)3-0
- Mar 7 · at Levante (A)1-1
- Mar 1 · v Celta de Vigo (H)1-2
- Feb 23 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)2-2
Villarreal
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Mar 20 · v Real Sociedad (H)3-1
- Mar 13 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)1-1
- Mar 8 · v Elche (H)2-1
- Feb 28 · at FC Barcelona (A)1-4
- Feb 22 · v Valencia (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Girona | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.