3rd Division, Group 6 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 · Gjøvik-Lyn vs Oppsal
Likeliest: Gjøvik-Lyn win · 69%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 69% for the home win. The market says 66%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gjøvik-Lyn69%66%+3
OursMarket
Draw17%18%−1
OursMarket
Oppsal14%16%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 53% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 72% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 31% | 34% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gjøvik-Lyn
WinLossLossWinWin
- Oct 10 · at Bjoerkelangen (A)7-1
- Oct 3 · v Raelingen FK (H)5-0
- Sep 26 · at Sarpsborg 08 II (A)2-3
- Sep 19 · at Drøbak/Frogn (A)2-3
- Sep 12 · v Lyn 1896 FK II (H)2-0
Oppsal
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Oct 10 · v Drøbak/Frogn (H)1-2
- Oct 3 · at Lillehammer (A)2-3
- Sep 26 · v Brumunddal (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Ørn-Horten (A)2-0
- Sep 12 · v Fram Larvik (H)6-3
| Last 10 games | Gjøvik-Lyn | Oppsal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-2 | 2-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.