Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Sat, Oct 17 · 15:30 · GKS Katowice vs Pogoń Szczecin
Likeliest: GKS Katowice win · 42%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
GKS Katowice42%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Pogoń Szczecin33%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 65% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
GKS Katowice
LossLossWinWinWin
- Oct 12 · v Wieczysta Kraków (H)2-1
- Oct 9 · at Raków Częstochowa (A)4-1
- Sep 19 · v Cracovia (H)3-2
- Sep 12 · at Zagłębie Lubin (A)1-2
- Sep 4 · at Piast Gliwice (A)0-3
Pogoń Szczecin
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 11 · v MKS Korona Kielce (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · at Piast Gliwice (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · v Wieczysta Kraków (H)2-0
- Sep 7 · v Wisła Płock (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · at Zagłębie Lubin (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | GKS Katowice | Pogoń Szczecin |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-1-0 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.