FA Cup (England) · Tue, Oct 20 · 18:45 · Gloucester City vs Barrow AFC
Likeliest: Barrow AFC win · 55%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 55% for the away win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gloucester City23%26%−3
OursMarket
Draw23%23%−1
OursMarket
Barrow AFC55%51%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 45% | 49% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 78% | 74% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 29% | 34% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gloucester City
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 17 · at Barrow AFC (A)0-0
- Oct 3 · at Mulbarton Wanderers (A)2-1
- Sep 26 · v Stafford Rangers (H)4-0
- Sep 19 · at Totton (A)2-0
- Sep 8 · at Mangotsfield United (A)4-0
Barrow AFC
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 17 · v Gloucester City (H)0-0
- Oct 10 · at Tamworth (A)2-1
- Oct 3 · v Wealdstone (H)2-1
- Sep 29 · v Scunthorpe United (H)3-0
- Sep 26 · at Southend United (A)4-2
| Last 10 games | Gloucester City | Barrow AFC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-1 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 56% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.