Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 22 · 16:45 · GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen
Likeliest: GNK Dinamo Zagreb win · 58%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
GNK Dinamo Zagreb58%56%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
NEC Nijmegen21%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 62% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 44% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.6 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
GNK Dinamo Zagreb
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 18 · at NK Slaven Belupo (A)5-1
- Oct 15 · v RSC Anderlecht (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · at HNK Hajduk Split (A)1-2
- Oct 4 · at HNK Vukovar 1991 (A)4-0
- Sep 20 · v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (H)3-2
NEC Nijmegen
LossDrawDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 18 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)2-2
- Oct 15 · v Levski Sofia (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · at AFC Ajax (A)1-1
- Sep 20 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)1-1
- Sep 17 · at Juventus (A)0-5
| Last 10 games | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-0 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.