1. HNL (Croatia) · Sun, Sep 20 · 18:00 · GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Likeliest: GNK Dinamo Zagreb win · 80%
A tight one: we make it 80% for the home win. The market says 77%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
GNK Dinamo Zagreb80%77%+3
OursMarket
Draw11%14%−3
OursMarket
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb9%9%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 91% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 20% | 23% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 89% | 86% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 89% | 89% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.7 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
GNK Dinamo Zagreb
LossDrawWinLossDraw
- Sep 16 · at Hapoel Be'er Sheva (A)0-0
- Sep 12 · at NK Osijek (A)2-4
- Sep 5 · v HNK Gorica (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · at NK Istra 1961 (A)2-2
- Aug 26 · at Viking FK (A)1-3
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Sep 12 · v HNK Rijeka (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at NK Slaven Belupo (A)1-2
- Aug 31 · at HNK Hajduk Split (A)0-2
- Aug 21 · at NK Rudeš (A)1-4
- Aug 15 · at NK Osijek (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 2-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 57% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 71% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-0 | 1-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.