Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 15 · 19:00 · GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs RSC Anderlecht
Likeliest: GNK Dinamo Zagreb win · 48%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
GNK Dinamo Zagreb48%48%0
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
RSC Anderlecht25%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
GNK Dinamo Zagreb
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 10 · at HNK Hajduk Split (A)1-2
- Oct 4 · at HNK Vukovar 1991 (A)4-0
- Sep 20 · v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (H)3-2
- Sep 16 · at Hapoel Be'er Sheva (A)0-0
- Sep 12 · at NK Osijek (A)2-4
RSC Anderlecht
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Oct 10 · at Cercle Brugge (A)2-1
- Sep 19 · v SV Zulte Waregem (H)3-0
- Sep 16 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)1-2
- Sep 11 · at KV Mechelen (A)1-0
- Sep 6 · v KRC Genk (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | RSC Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-0 | 4-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.