Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Aug 23 · 10:15 · Go Ahead Eagles vs ADO Den Haag
Likeliest: Go Ahead Eagles win · 41%
A 37% away win. The market says 21%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Go Ahead Eagles41%55%−14
OursMarket
Draw22%24%−2
OursMarket
ADO Den Haag37%21%+16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 62% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 61% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 79% | −16 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 45% | +14 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 72% | −20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Go Ahead Eagles
DrawLossLossWinDraw
- Aug 16 · at Feyenoord (A)2-2
- Aug 8 · v Willem II Tilburg (H)4-1
- May 17 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)1-2
- May 10 · v PSV (H)1-4
- May 3 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)2-2
ADO Den Haag
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Aug 16 · v FC Groningen (H)1-4
- Aug 8 · at AZ Alkmaar (A)0-2
- Apr 24 · at FC Den Bosch (A)3-1
- Apr 17 · v RKC Waalwijk (H)5-1
- Apr 12 · at FC Dordrecht (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Go Ahead Eagles | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.