Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Thu, Apr 23 · 16:45 · Go Ahead Eagles vs AZ
Likeliest: Go Ahead Eagles win · 54%
We make it 41% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Go Ahead Eagles54%32%+21
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
AZ24%43%−19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 64% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 65% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 57% | +19 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 68% | −22 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 43% | +27 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Go Ahead Eagles
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Apr 11 · at FC Groningen (A)0-0
- Apr 5 · v PEC Zwolle (H)5-0
- Mar 22 · at FC Utrecht (A)0-2
- Mar 15 · v NAC Breda (H)6-0
- Mar 8 · v FC Twente (H)1-4
AZ
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Apr 19 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)5-1
- Apr 16 · v Shakhtar Donetsk (H)2-2
- Apr 12 · v SC Heerenveen (H)3-0
- Apr 9 · at Shakhtar Donetsk (A)0-3
- Apr 4 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Go Ahead Eagles | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.