Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Dec 21 · 13:30 · Go Ahead Eagles vs FC Groningen
Likeliest: Go Ahead Eagles win · 38%
A 38% home win. The market says 29%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Go Ahead Eagles38%29%+9
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
FC Groningen38%44%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 56% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 71% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 40% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Go Ahead Eagles
DrawDrawLossLossDraw
- Dec 17 · at Roda JC Kerkrade (A)1-1
- Dec 14 · at FC Twente (A)0-2
- Dec 11 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)1-2
- Dec 7 · at AZ (A)2-2
- Nov 30 · v FC Utrecht (H)2-2
FC Groningen
LossDrawLossWinWin
- Dec 13 · v FC Volendam (H)3-0
- Dec 5 · at Excelsior (A)2-0
- Nov 30 · at Ajax (A)0-2
- Nov 23 · v PEC Zwolle (H)2-2
- Nov 9 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Go Ahead Eagles | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.