Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Mar 8 · 13:30 · Go Ahead Eagles vs FC Twente
Likeliest: Go Ahead Eagles win · 45%
We make it 65% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 60%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Go Ahead Eagles45%23%+22
OursMarket
Draw20%24%−4
OursMarket
FC Twente35%54%−18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 60% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 61% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 46% | +18 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 77% | −22 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 76% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 30% | +26 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Go Ahead Eagles
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Mar 1 · at Excelsior (A)1-0
- Feb 22 · v Heracles Almelo (H)4-0
- Feb 15 · at Feyenoord (A)0-1
- Feb 11 · v SC Heerenveen (H)1-3
- Feb 8 · v Telstar (H)1-1
FC Twente
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Mar 1 · v Feyenoord (H)2-0
- Feb 22 · v FC Groningen (H)2-1
- Feb 15 · at Telstar (A)1-1
- Feb 7 · v SC Heerenveen (H)5-0
- Feb 3 · at AZ (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Go Ahead Eagles | FC Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-6-2 | 3-6-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.