Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Nov 30 · 13:30 · Go Ahead Eagles vs FC Utrecht
Likeliest: FC Utrecht win · 46%
We make it 70% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 56%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Go Ahead Eagles33%34%−1
OursMarket
Draw22%27%−5
OursMarket
FC Utrecht46%39%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 56% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 61% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 73% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 47% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Go Ahead Eagles
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Nov 27 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)0-4
- Nov 22 · at Heracles Almelo (A)2-4
- Nov 9 · v Feyenoord (H)2-1
- Nov 6 · at Salzburg (A)0-2
- Nov 1 · at NAC Breda (A)0-1
FC Utrecht
WinDrawWinDrawLoss
- Nov 27 · at Real Betis (A)1-2
- Nov 23 · at Telstar (A)1-1
- Nov 9 · v Ajax (H)2-1
- Nov 6 · v Porto (H)1-1
- Nov 2 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Go Ahead Eagles | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.