KNVB Beker (Netherlands) · Wed, Jan 14 · 19:00 · Go Ahead Eagles vs Heracles Almelo
Likeliest: Go Ahead Eagles win · 51%
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Go Ahead Eagles51%50%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
Heracles Almelo26%25%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 60% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 67% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Go Ahead Eagles
LossLossDrawDrawDraw
- Jan 11 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)2-2
- Dec 21 · v FC Groningen (H)1-1
- Dec 17 · at Roda JC Kerkrade (A)1-1
- Dec 14 · at FC Twente (A)0-2
- Dec 11 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)1-2
Heracles Almelo
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Jan 11 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)0-2
- Dec 20 · v SC Heerenveen (H)0-3
- Dec 16 · v Hoogeveen (H)4-1
- Dec 13 · at PSV (A)3-4
- Dec 6 · v Telstar (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Go Ahead Eagles | Heracles Almelo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.