Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Feb 22 · 13:30 · Go Ahead Eagles vs Heracles Almelo
Likeliest: Go Ahead Eagles win · 59%
A 59% home win. The market says 52%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Go Ahead Eagles59%52%+6
OursMarket
Draw21%25%−4
OursMarket
Heracles Almelo21%23%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 57% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 58% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 48% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 75% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 70% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Go Ahead Eagles
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Feb 15 · at Feyenoord (A)0-1
- Feb 11 · v SC Heerenveen (H)1-3
- Feb 8 · v Telstar (H)1-1
- Feb 5 · at Telstar (A)1-2
- Feb 1 · at FC Volendam (A)1-1
Heracles Almelo
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Feb 14 · v NAC Breda (H)0-1
- Feb 7 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)1-4
- Feb 1 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)2-1
- Jan 25 · at Feyenoord (A)2-4
- Jan 18 · v FC Twente (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Go Ahead Eagles | Heracles Almelo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-6-4 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-6-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Go Ahead Eagles form·Heracles Almelo form·Head-to-head record