Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Mar 15 · 15:45 · Go Ahead Eagles vs NAC Breda
Likeliest: Go Ahead Eagles win · 49%
A 49% home win. The market says 43%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Go Ahead Eagles49%43%+7
OursMarket
Draw23%26%−4
OursMarket
NAC Breda28%31%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 57% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 61% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 57% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 74% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 58% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Go Ahead Eagles
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Mar 8 · v FC Twente (H)1-4
- Mar 1 · at Excelsior (A)1-0
- Feb 22 · v Heracles Almelo (H)4-0
- Feb 15 · at Feyenoord (A)0-1
- Feb 11 · v SC Heerenveen (H)1-3
NAC Breda
LossWinWinLossDraw
- Mar 8 · v Feyenoord (H)3-3
- Feb 27 · at Telstar (A)0-3
- Feb 21 · v FC Volendam (H)1-0
- Feb 14 · at Heracles Almelo (A)1-0
- Feb 6 · v Excelsior (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Go Ahead Eagles | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-6-3 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.