Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Apr 5 · 10:15 · Go Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle
Likeliest: Go Ahead Eagles win · 52%
A 52% home win. The market says 48%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Go Ahead Eagles52%48%+5
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
PEC Zwolle25%27%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 61% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 63% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 52% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 64% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Go Ahead Eagles
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Mar 22 · at FC Utrecht (A)0-2
- Mar 15 · v NAC Breda (H)6-0
- Mar 8 · v FC Twente (H)1-4
- Mar 1 · at Excelsior (A)1-0
- Feb 22 · v Heracles Almelo (H)4-0
PEC Zwolle
DrawDrawDrawDrawWin
- Mar 21 · v NAC Breda (H)2-1
- Mar 13 · v FC Groningen (H)1-1
- Mar 8 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)1-1
- Mar 1 · v Ajax (H)0-0
- Feb 22 · at FC Utrecht (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Go Ahead Eagles | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-6-2 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.