Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, May 10 · 14:45 · Go Ahead Eagles vs PSV
Likeliest: Go Ahead Eagles win · 40%
A 40% home win. The market says 22%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Go Ahead Eagles40%22%+18
OursMarket
Draw22%20%+1
OursMarket
PSV38%57%−19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 73% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 68% | 69% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 43% | +19 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 78% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 80% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 28% | +24 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Go Ahead Eagles
LossWinDrawDrawDraw
- May 3 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)2-2
- Apr 23 · v AZ (H)0-0
- Apr 11 · at FC Groningen (A)0-0
- Apr 5 · v PEC Zwolle (H)5-0
- Mar 22 · at FC Utrecht (A)0-2
PSV
LossWinWinWinDraw
- May 2 · at Ajax (A)2-2
- Apr 23 · v PEC Zwolle (H)6-1
- Apr 11 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)2-0
- Apr 4 · v FC Utrecht (H)4-3
- Mar 22 · at Telstar (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Go Ahead Eagles | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.