Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Oct 23 · 18:00 · Go Ahead Eagles vs SC Telstar
Likeliest: Go Ahead Eagles win · 65%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 65% for the home win. The market says 62%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Go Ahead Eagles65%62%+2
OursMarket
Draw20%20%0
OursMarket
SC Telstar16%18%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 68% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 63% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 82% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 38% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 78% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Go Ahead Eagles
DrawDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 18 · at PEC Zwolle (A)1-4
- Oct 10 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)3-3
- Sep 20 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v FC Groningen (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at FC Utrecht (A)0-0
SC Telstar
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · v Feyenoord (H)3-4
- Oct 11 · v ADO Den Haag (H)2-2
- Sep 20 · at AZ Alkmaar (A)0-1
- Sep 13 · at SC Heerenveen (A)0-0
- Sep 9 · at FC Twente (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Go Ahead Eagles | SC Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.