Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:30 · Go Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam
Likeliest: Go Ahead Eagles win · 55%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Go Ahead Eagles55%54%0
OursMarket
Draw24%24%+1
OursMarket
Sparta Rotterdam21%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 46% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Go Ahead Eagles
WinLossDrawDrawDraw
- Sep 20 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v FC Groningen (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at FC Utrecht (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · at AZ Alkmaar (A)2-5
- Aug 23 · v ADO Den Haag (H)3-1
Sparta Rotterdam
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Sep 19 · v SC Heerenveen (H)0-4
- Sep 13 · at PSV Eindhoven (A)1-4
- Sep 4 · v PEC Zwolle (H)2-2
- Aug 29 · at Excelsior (A)1-2
- Aug 22 · v FC Utrecht (H)3-3
| Last 10 games | Go Ahead Eagles | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 2.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Go Ahead Eagles form·Sparta Rotterdam form·Head-to-head record