Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Feb 8 · 13:30 · Go Ahead Eagles vs Telstar
Likeliest: Go Ahead Eagles win · 53%
We make it 63% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 58%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Go Ahead Eagles53%53%+1
OursMarket
Draw20%24%−4
OursMarket
Telstar27%23%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 58% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 59% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 77% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 47% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 76% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 69% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Go Ahead Eagles
DrawLossDrawDrawLoss
- Feb 5 · at Telstar (A)1-2
- Feb 1 · at FC Volendam (A)1-1
- Jan 29 · v Sporting Braga (H)0-0
- Jan 22 · at Nice (A)1-3
- Jan 17 · at Ajax (A)2-2
Telstar
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Feb 5 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)2-1
- Jan 31 · at PEC Zwolle (A)1-4
- Jan 25 · v AZ (H)0-1
- Jan 17 · at Excelsior (A)2-2
- Jan 14 · at Almere City (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Go Ahead Eagles | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-7-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-6-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.