Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Thu, Oct 8 · 18:00 · Godoy Cruz Reserve vs Barracas Central Reserve
Likeliest: Godoy Cruz Reserve win · 45%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Godoy Cruz Reserve45%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+1
OursMarket
Barracas Central Reserve27%28%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 43% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Godoy Cruz Reserve
DrawWinWinDrawLoss
- Oct 1 · at Talleres de Córdoba Reserve (A)1-3
- Sep 25 · at San Martin Reserve (A)0-0
- Sep 17 · v Banfield Reserve (H)3-0
- Sep 10 · at Rosario Central Reserve (A)3-0
- Sep 2 · v Tigre Reserve (H)2-2
Barracas Central Reserve
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 1 · v Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza Reserve (H)0-0
- Sep 24 · at CD Riestra Reserve (A)0-3
- Sep 17 · v Instituto AC Cordoba Reserves (H)3-1
- Sep 9 · at Talleres de Córdoba Reserve (A)1-2
- Sep 3 · v Banfield Reserve (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Godoy Cruz Reserve | Barracas Central Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-0 | 0-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.