Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 17 · 20:00 · Godoy Cruz vs Estudiantes de Buenos Aires
Likeliest: Godoy Cruz win · 55%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 46% for both teams to score. The market says 38%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Godoy Cruz55%54%0
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+1
OursMarket
Estudiantes de Buenos Aires17%18%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 35% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 38% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 46% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Godoy Cruz
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Oct 12 · at All Boys (A)0-0
- Oct 3 · v Los Andes (H)2-1
- Sep 27 · at Racing de Córdoba (A)2-2
- Sep 20 · at Deportivo Morón (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · v Club Atletico Colón (H)2-0
Estudiantes de Buenos Aires
WinWinWinLossWin
- Oct 11 · v Deportivo Morón (H)2-0
- Oct 3 · at Club Atletico Colón (A)0-1
- Sep 26 · v San Miguel (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at San Telmo (A)1-0
- Sep 13 · v Acassuso (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Godoy Cruz | Estudiantes de Buenos Aires |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 1-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.