Serie B (Brazil) · Tue, Oct 6 · 23:30 · Goiás vs Athletic Club
Likeliest: Goiás win · 54%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 47% for both teams to score. The market says 41%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Goiás54%55%0
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Athletic Club17%18%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 41% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 41% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 45% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 75% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Goiás
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Oct 2 · at Novorizontino (A)0-3
- Sep 26 · v Atlético Goianiense (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · v Avaí (H)2-1
- Sep 14 · at Botafogo-SP (A)3-1
- Sep 10 · at Vila Nova FC (A)0-2
Athletic Club
WinDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 1 · v Sport Recife (H)1-2
- Sep 27 · at Fortaleza (A)2-2
- Sep 19 · v Botafogo-SP (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)0-0
- Sep 13 · at Juventude (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Goiás | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.