Serie B (Brazil) · Mon, Oct 19 · 22:30 · Goiás vs Náutico
Likeliest: Goiás win · 53%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Goiás53%53%0
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Náutico20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 71% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Goiás
WinLossLossWinWin
- Oct 11 · at Operário-PR (A)2-0
- Oct 6 · v Athletic Club (H)2-1
- Oct 2 · at Novorizontino (A)0-3
- Sep 26 · v Atlético Goianiense (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · v Avaí (H)2-1
Náutico
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 11 · v Vila Nova FC (H)0-2
- Oct 8 · v Novorizontino (H)0-2
- Oct 3 · at Fortaleza (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Sport Recife (H)3-1
- Sep 22 · at Cuiabá (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Goiás | Náutico |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 0-4-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.