Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Sun, Oct 18 · 10:15 · Górnik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice
Likeliest: Górnik Zabrze win · 58%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Górnik Zabrze58%57%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Piast Gliwice18%19%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 43% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Górnik Zabrze
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 10 · at Jagiellonia Białystok (A)3-1
- Sep 19 · at Motor Lublin (A)0-0
- Sep 15 · at MKS Korona Kielce (A)2-0
- Sep 12 · v Lech Poznań (H)2-1
- Sep 6 · at Cracovia (A)1-0
Piast Gliwice
WinWinWinLossWin
- Oct 11 · v Widzew Łódź (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · v Pogoń Szczecin (H)1-2
- Sep 14 · at Radomiak Radom (A)2-0
- Sep 4 · v GKS Katowice (H)3-0
- Aug 29 · at Motor Lublin (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Górnik Zabrze | Piast Gliwice |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.