Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Fri, Oct 9 · 17:00 · Göteborg vs Västerås SK
Likeliest: Göteborg win · 55%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Göteborg55%54%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Västerås SK21%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Göteborg
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 19 · at IF Brommapojkarna (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Halmstads BK (H)2-1
- Sep 7 · at Mjällby (A)4-1
- Sep 2 · at BK Olympic (A)5-0
- Aug 30 · v Örgryte IS (H)1-0
Västerås SK
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Sep 19 · v Malmö FF (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · at AIK (A)4-1
- Sep 5 · v IK Sirius (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at BK Häcken (A)3-1
- Aug 23 · v Kalmar (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Göteborg | Västerås SK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.