Super Lig (Turkey) · Sun, Oct 25 · 16:00 · Göztepe vs Çorum FK
Likeliest: Göztepe win · 43%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Göztepe43%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Çorum FK31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Göztepe
LossDrawDrawWinWin
- Oct 18 · at Kocaelispor (A)2-1
- Oct 12 · at Eyüpspor (A)4-0
- Sep 20 · v Çaykur Rizespor (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Alanyaspor (A)2-2
- Sep 7 · v Gaziantep FK (H)2-4
Çorum FK
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 16 · v Çaykur Rizespor (H)2-1
- Oct 11 · at Gaziantep FK (A)3-0
- Sep 19 · v Alanyaspor (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Samsunspor (A)5-1
- Sep 6 · v Eyüpspor (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Göztepe | Çorum FK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.