La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sun, Oct 18 · 14:15 · Granada vs Cádiz
Likeliest: Granada win · 51%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Granada51%51%0
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Cádiz21%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 46% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 69% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Granada
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Oct 12 · at Burgos Club de Fútbol (A)1-0
- Oct 4 · at Real Sociedad B (A)3-2
- Sep 26 · v FC Andorra (H)2-3
- Sep 20 · at Leganés (A)2-3
- Sep 12 · v Albacete Balompié (H)1-1
Cádiz
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Oct 11 · v Sporting Gijón (H)0-1
- Oct 3 · v Leganés (H)4-0
- Sep 26 · at CD Tenerife (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Girona FC (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Las Palmas (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Granada | Cádiz |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 0-4-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.