La Liga 2 (Spain) · Mon, Aug 24 · 19:30 · Granada vs Mallorca
Likeliest: Granada win · 45%
A 45% home win. The market says 32%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Granada45%32%+13
OursMarket
Draw24%31%−7
OursMarket
Mallorca31%37%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 39% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 46% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 63% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 68% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 69% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 46% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Granada
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Aug 15 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-0
- May 30 · v Sporting Gijón (H)1-2
- May 24 · at Mirandés (A)1-3
- May 16 · v Burgos (H)0-1
- May 10 · at Córdoba (A)0-1
Mallorca
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Aug 15 · v Real Valladolid (H)2-0
- May 23 · v Real Oviedo (H)3-0
- May 17 · at Levante (A)0-2
- May 13 · at Getafe (A)1-3
- May 10 · v Villarreal (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Granada | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.