La Liga 2 (Spain) · Fri, Oct 23 · 18:30 · Granada vs Real Valladolid
Likeliest: Granada win · 45%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 51% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Granada45%45%0
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+1
OursMarket
Real Valladolid26%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 44% | +7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 51% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 62% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Granada
LossLossWinWinWin
- Oct 18 · v Cádiz (H)2-0
- Oct 12 · at Burgos Club de Fútbol (A)1-0
- Oct 4 · at Real Sociedad B (A)3-2
- Sep 26 · v FC Andorra (H)2-3
- Sep 20 · at Leganés (A)2-3
Real Valladolid
DrawWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 18 · v CD Eldense (H)2-3
- Oct 12 · v Albacete Balompié (H)5-0
- Oct 4 · at Las Palmas (A)2-2
- Sep 27 · v Córdoba (H)3-1
- Sep 20 · at AD Ceuta (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Granada | Real Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 0-3-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.