Austrian Bundesliga (Austria) · Sat, Sep 19 · 17:30 · Grazer AK 1902 vs Austria Wien
Likeliest: Grazer AK 1902 win · 36%
A tight one: we make it 36% for the home win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Grazer AK 190236%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Austria Wien34%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Grazer AK 1902
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Sep 12 · at SC Rheindorf Altach (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · v Wolfsberger AC (H)0-0
- Aug 21 · at SV Ried (A)0-1
- Aug 16 · at SK Rapid Wien (A)0-8
- Aug 8 · v SC Austria Lustenau (H)2-1
Austria Wien
LossDrawLossLossWin
- Sep 13 · v SC Austria Lustenau (H)2-1
- Sep 2 · v WSG Tirol (H)0-1
- Aug 30 · at Red Bull Salzburg (A)1-4
- Aug 27 · v Sporting Braga (H)0-0
- Aug 20 · at Sporting Braga (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Grazer AK 1902 | Austria Wien |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-3 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.