Austrian Bundesliga (Austria) · Sat, Oct 10 · 15:00 · Grazer AK 1902 vs Red Bull Salzburg
Likeliest: Red Bull Salzburg win · 68%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 68% for the away win. The market says 64%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Grazer AK 190212%16%−4
OursMarket
Draw20%20%0
OursMarket
Red Bull Salzburg68%64%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 32% | 36% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 88% | 84% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 15% | 20% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Grazer AK 1902
LossLossDrawWinDraw
- Sep 19 · v Austria Wien (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at SC Rheindorf Altach (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · v Wolfsberger AC (H)0-0
- Aug 21 · at SV Ried (A)0-1
- Aug 16 · at SK Rapid Wien (A)0-8
Red Bull Salzburg
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Sep 20 · v SK Sturm Graz (H)3-0
- Sep 17 · at Levski Sofia (A)1-0
- Sep 11 · at SV Ried (A)1-1
- Sep 2 · v SK Rapid Wien (H)5-1
- Aug 30 · v Austria Wien (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Grazer AK 1902 | Red Bull Salzburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-3 | 7-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 3-3-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.