Championship (Scotland) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Greenock Morton vs Ayr United
Likeliest: Ayr United win · 45%
We make it 59% for both teams to score. The market says 54%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Greenock Morton25%29%−4
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Ayr United45%44%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 48% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 54% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 35% | 40% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 0.7 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Greenock Morton
LossDrawLossWinDraw
- Oct 17 · v Queen's Park FC (H)0-0
- Oct 10 · at Arbroath (A)2-1
- Oct 3 · v Raith Rovers (H)1-2
- Sep 25 · at Inverness Caledonian Thistle (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Dunfermline Athletic (H)0-1
Ayr United
WinDrawWinDrawLoss
- Oct 16 · v Partick Thistle (H)0-1
- Oct 10 · v Dunfermline Athletic (H)0-0
- Oct 3 · at Livingston (A)2-1
- Sep 25 · v Stenhousemuir (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · at Queen's Park FC (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Greenock Morton | Ayr United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-1-5 | 3-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.