Championship (Scotland) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Greenock Morton vs Queen's Park FC
Likeliest: Queen's Park FC win · 36%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 36% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Greenock Morton32%36%−3
OursMarket
Draw32%29%+3
OursMarket
Queen's Park FC36%36%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 46% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 64% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 71% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 50% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Greenock Morton
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 10 · at Arbroath (A)2-1
- Oct 3 · v Raith Rovers (H)1-2
- Sep 25 · at Inverness Caledonian Thistle (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Dunfermline Athletic (H)0-1
- Sep 11 · v Livingston (H)1-4
Queen's Park FC
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 13 · v Inverness Caledonian Thistle (H)2-1
- Oct 10 · at Raith Rovers (A)0-2
- Sep 25 · at Arbroath (A)0-0
- Sep 18 · v Ayr United (H)0-2
- Sep 12 · at Dunfermline Athletic (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Greenock Morton | Queen's Park FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-0-5 | 0-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.