USL League One (USA) · Sat, Oct 17 · 23:00 · Greenville Triumph SC vs Charlotte Independence
Likeliest: Charlotte Independence win · 38%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Greenville Triumph SC35%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Charlotte Independence38%37%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 2.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Greenville Triumph SC
LossLossLossDrawWin
- Oct 14 · v Spokane Velocity FC (H)4-3
- Oct 11 · at AV Alta FC (A)2-2
- Oct 3 · at AC Boise (A)0-1
- Sep 26 · v Union Omaha SC (H)1-3
- Sep 19 · at Sarasota Paradise (A)0-6
Charlotte Independence
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 10 · v New York Cosmos (H)3-0
- Oct 3 · at Sarasota Paradise (A)3-2
- Sep 26 · v Fort Wayne FC (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Richmond Kickers (A)2-1
- Sep 17 · at AC Boise (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Greenville Triumph SC | Charlotte Independence |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.