USL League One (USA) · Wed, Oct 14 · 23:00 · Greenville Triumph SC vs Spokane Velocity FC
Likeliest: Spokane Velocity FC win · 51%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 51% for the away win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Greenville Triumph SC22%26%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Spokane Velocity FC51%49%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 49% | 51% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 78% | 74% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 30% | 35% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Greenville Triumph SC
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 11 · at AV Alta FC (A)2-2
- Oct 3 · at AC Boise (A)0-1
- Sep 26 · v Union Omaha SC (H)1-3
- Sep 19 · at Sarasota Paradise (A)0-6
- Sep 16 · v Corpus Christi FC (H)0-1
Spokane Velocity FC
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 11 · at One Knoxville SC (A)2-0
- Oct 4 · v Portland Hearts of Pine (H)3-3
- Sep 30 · at Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (A)1-0
- Sep 26 · at Forward Madison FC (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · v AC Boise (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Greenville Triumph SC | Spokane Velocity FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.