3rd Division, Group 1 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 3 · 11:00 · Grei vs Asker
Likeliest: Asker win · 88%
Likely score: 1–4
A 88% away win. The market says 83%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Grei4%6%−2
OursMarket
Draw8%10%−2
OursMarket
Asker88%83%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 95% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 59% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 12% | 17% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 96% | 94% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 92% | 90% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 4% | 7% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 4.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Grei
WinLossLossLossWin
- Sep 26 · at Ready (A)3-2
- Sep 19 · v Heming (H)1-4
- Sep 12 · at Konnerud IL (A)2-3
- Sep 5 · v FK Union Carl Berner (H)0-1
- Sep 1 · at Nordstrand (A)5-3
Asker
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 26 · v Nordstrand (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Gamle Oslo FK (A)2-1
- Sep 14 · v KFUM Oslo II (H)7-2
- Sep 5 · at Ullern (A)6-2
- Aug 15 · at Heming (A)5-2
| Last 10 games | Grei | Asker |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-0-6 | 8-0-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 3.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% | 88% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 25% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.