3rd Division, Group 1 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 17 · 11:00 · Grei vs Gamle Oslo FK
Likeliest: Grei win · 36%
We make it 41% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 23%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Grei36%24%+12
OursMarket
Draw28%20%+8
OursMarket
Gamle Oslo FK36%56%−20
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 77% | −18 |
| Both teams score | 59% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 44% | +20 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 76% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 80% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 30% | +20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Grei
LossLossWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · at Ullern (A)2-0
- Oct 3 · v Asker (H)4-3
- Sep 26 · at Ready (A)3-2
- Sep 19 · v Heming (H)1-4
- Sep 12 · at Konnerud IL (A)2-3
Gamle Oslo FK
LossLossLossDrawWin
- Oct 10 · v Nordstrand (H)1-0
- Oct 3 · at Frigg (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Lokomotiv Oslo (A)1-4
- Sep 20 · v Asker (H)1-2
- Sep 16 · v Lyn FK (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Grei | Gamle Oslo FK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-0-3 | 3-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.